Southcentral Alaska
Alaska Aurora Forecast
Most aurora forecasts tell you the Kp number and leave you to guess what it means from your driveway. This one scores 18 specific places for tonight, and it weighs the thing that actually decides most nights here: cloud. A strong display above a solid overcast is a display you will not see.
Reading the sky.
How the score is worked out
Five things multiply together: how far south the aurora band reaches over you, how clear your sky is, whether it is properly dark, how bright the moon is, and whether the solar wind is pushing. The lowest of those is what limits your night, and it is the one the page names. A score can never read 100, because the sky does not offer certainty.
Anchorage, Palmer and Wasilla sit in the same cell of the aurora model, so any real difference between them tonight comes from cloud, darkness and the drive, not from the aurora. The band that only reaches Anchorage on a strong night sits over Fairbanks on plenty of ordinary ones, and the northern sites at the top of the table above are scored on their own sky.